EE
Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered strong sequential growth: revenue $274.6M, operating income $60.2M, net income $46.1M, adjusted EBITDA $91.6M, and diluted EPS $0.40. Full-year 2024 set records: adjusted EBITDA $348.2M and net income $153.0M, with EPS $1.27 .
- 2025 guidance introduced: adjusted EBITDA $340–$360M, maintenance capex $60–$70M, committed growth capital $65–$75M; dividend maintained at $0.06 per share for Q4 2024 .
- Liquidity remains robust: cash $537.5M, undrawn revolver $327.2M; CFO noted net debt of ~$158M at year-end (total debt incl. leases $696M, cash $538M) .
- Catalysts highlighted: best-in-class newbuild FSRU (Hull 3407) on track for 2026, two Q4 LNG optimization deals, and planned LNG carrier purchase enabling future FSRU conversion; 99.9% fleet reliability achieved in 2024 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record full-year performance: adjusted EBITDA $348.2M and net income $153.0M; CEO: “2024 was an exceptional year…record full year financial results” .
- Operational excellence: 99.9% fleet reliability in 2024; celebrated 3,000th LNG ship-to-ship transfer in Bangladesh on Dec 28, 2024 .
- Strategic momentum: Q4 included two LNG optimization deals and pull-forward of Atlantic Basin volumes; >90% of 2025 earnings mix anchored by base FSRU/terminal business .
What Went Wrong
- Sequential profitability headwinds: Q4 adjusted EBITDA was essentially flat vs Q3 ($91.6M vs $92.3M) due to higher operating costs from scheduled maintenance, partially offset by optimizing LNG sales .
- Mix shift vs 2023: full-year revenue declined to $851.4M from $1,159.0M driven by lower gas sales vs prior year, even as operating income and adjusted EBITDA held up .
- 2025 off-hire impact: two capitalized dry docks (Exemplar in Q3, Explorer in Q4) imply 40–50 days off-hire each; while embedded in guidance, it creates execution risk for utilization .
Financial Results
Quarterly headline metrics (sequential comparison)
Full-year comparison
Segment revenue breakdown
KPIs and liquidity
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO (prepared): “We delivered record full year financial results while maintaining our standard of operational excellence…positioned as the industry leader in FSRUs and downstream LNG infrastructure” .
- CEO (strategy): Hull 3407 “best-in-class…capable of delivering 1 billion cubic feet per day,” with keel laying and launch milestones in H1 2025, delivery in 2026 .
- CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $92 million…essentially flat to the third quarter,” and net debt ~$158M with $538M cash on hand, underscoring balance sheet strength .
- CFO (2025 guide): EBITDA $340–$360M, maintenance capex $60–$70M; two dry docks (Exemplar Q3, Explorer Q4 2025) with 40–50 days off-hire each included in guidance .
Q&A Highlights
- 2025 guidance composition: base FSRU/terminal business drives EBITDA; other growth opportunities not embedded; LNG optimization assumed, but over 90% from core .
- LNG carrier acquisition: inspected multiple vessels; plan to use for optimization in near term and later convert to FSRU; conversion aimed at smaller send-out projects .
- Capex accounting: 2025 maintenance capex fully capitalized; prior Bangladesh dry docks were expensed .
- Newbuild payments: final payment ~$200M in mid-2026; milestone payments $33M (Q1 2025 keel laying) and $17M (Q2 2025 launch) .
- Macro tailwinds: European policy and storage dynamics support tight FSRU demand; “cheap insurance” case reinforced by Gasgrid Finland example .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 was unavailable due to SPGI request limit errors during retrieval; as a result, comparisons vs consensus estimates are not shown [GetEstimates error].
- We will revisit estimates when access is restored to assess beat/miss risk vs EPS and revenue consensus from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Sequentially stronger quarter: revenue up sharply to $274.6M with EPS $0.40; adjusted EBITDA steady amid planned maintenance—supportive of durability in the base business .
- 2025 setup: EBITDA guide $340–$360M with embedded off-hire from two dry docks; >90% of earnings from core FSRU/terminal business reduces commodity risk profile .
- Capital discipline: dividend maintained at $0.06; buyback fully utilized ($50M) with ~2.5M shares repurchased in 2024—signals confidence and shareholder returns .
- Strategic optionality: LNG carrier purchase and conversion path creates near-to-midterm deployment flexibility; Hull 3407 is a high-capacity catalyst for 2026 .
- Liquidity for growth: cash $537.5M and $327.2M revolver capacity, with net debt ~$158M—ample balance sheet to fund organic/inorganic opportunities .
- Macro narrative supportive: structural FSRU “insurance” value and European dynamics likely sustain tight regas capacity markets; EE remains well positioned .
- Watch items: maintenance-driven off-hire execution, timing on LNG carrier acquisition, and progress in Vietnam/Alaska project contracting—potential upside catalysts .