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EE

Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered strong sequential growth: revenue $274.6M, operating income $60.2M, net income $46.1M, adjusted EBITDA $91.6M, and diluted EPS $0.40. Full-year 2024 set records: adjusted EBITDA $348.2M and net income $153.0M, with EPS $1.27 .
  • 2025 guidance introduced: adjusted EBITDA $340–$360M, maintenance capex $60–$70M, committed growth capital $65–$75M; dividend maintained at $0.06 per share for Q4 2024 .
  • Liquidity remains robust: cash $537.5M, undrawn revolver $327.2M; CFO noted net debt of ~$158M at year-end (total debt incl. leases $696M, cash $538M) .
  • Catalysts highlighted: best-in-class newbuild FSRU (Hull 3407) on track for 2026, two Q4 LNG optimization deals, and planned LNG carrier purchase enabling future FSRU conversion; 99.9% fleet reliability achieved in 2024 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record full-year performance: adjusted EBITDA $348.2M and net income $153.0M; CEO: “2024 was an exceptional year…record full year financial results” .
  • Operational excellence: 99.9% fleet reliability in 2024; celebrated 3,000th LNG ship-to-ship transfer in Bangladesh on Dec 28, 2024 .
  • Strategic momentum: Q4 included two LNG optimization deals and pull-forward of Atlantic Basin volumes; >90% of 2025 earnings mix anchored by base FSRU/terminal business .

What Went Wrong

  • Sequential profitability headwinds: Q4 adjusted EBITDA was essentially flat vs Q3 ($91.6M vs $92.3M) due to higher operating costs from scheduled maintenance, partially offset by optimizing LNG sales .
  • Mix shift vs 2023: full-year revenue declined to $851.4M from $1,159.0M driven by lower gas sales vs prior year, even as operating income and adjusted EBITDA held up .
  • 2025 off-hire impact: two capitalized dry docks (Exemplar in Q3, Explorer in Q4) imply 40–50 days off-hire each; while embedded in guidance, it creates execution risk for utilization .

Financial Results

Quarterly headline metrics (sequential comparison)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$183.3 $193.4 $274.6
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$49.9 $59.7 $60.2
Net Income ($USD Millions)$33.3 $45.5 $46.1
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$89.0 $92.3 $91.6
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.26 $0.35 $0.40

Full-year comparison

MetricFY 2023FY 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,159.0 $851.4
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$210.6 $215.0
Net Income ($USD Millions)$126.8 $153.0
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$346.8 $348.2
Diluted EPS ($USD)$1.11 $1.27

Segment revenue breakdown

SegmentQ3 2024Q4 2024
FSRU & Terminal Services ($USD Thousands)$150,139 $154,044
Gas Sales ($USD Thousands)$43,280 $120,528
Total Revenue ($USD Thousands)$193,419 $274,572

KPIs and liquidity

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$608.4 $537.5
Undrawn Revolver Capacity ($USD Millions)$349.9 $327.2
Letters of Credit Issued ($USD Millions)$0.1 $22.8
Net Debt (CFO view) ($USD Millions)N/A~$158 (total debt incl. leases $696, cash $538)
Dividend per Share (Quarter) ($USD)$0.06 (Dec 5, 2024 payment) $0.06 (Mar 27, 2025 payment, Q4)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025N/A$340–$360 Introduced
Maintenance Capex ($USD Millions)FY 2025N/A$60–$70 Introduced
Committed Growth Capital ($USD Millions)FY 2025N/A$65–$75 Introduced
Dividend per Share ($USD)Q4 2024$0.06 (Q3 board approval) $0.06 (declared Feb 20, 2025) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Q-2)Q3 2024 (Q-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Fleet reliability & safetyStrategy emphasis; reliability focus 99.8% reliability; 0 safety incidents 99.9% reliability record in 2024 Improving
LNG optimization activityRaised FY24 EBITDA; strategy to optimize LNG Mid-term Atlantic Basin deals signed (0.65 mt) Two Q4 optimization deals; pull-forward Atlantic cargo Increasing
FSRU supply/demand & macroTAM, tight asset class; global demand Newbuild Hull 3407 steel cutting; 2026 delivery Europe tightness; Germany adding gas plants; FSRU as cheap insurance Supportive
Vietnam projectsTerm sheet with ITECO (NVLT) PTSC strategic partnership Continued work; bullish fundamentals Advancing
Alaska (Cook Inlet)Advanced discussions; 2028 start target Ongoing technical and commercial work Focus now on export projects, near-term import need still possible Mixed/ongoing
Fleet growth (newbuild & conversion)Hull 3407 on schedule; reliquefaction kits ordered Evaluating LNG carrier for conversion; two reliq units interest Negotiating LNG carrier; conversion timeline shorter than newbuild Advancing
Capital allocation (dividends/repurchases)$50M buyback program initiated Dividend increased to $0.06; ongoing buybacks Buyback fully used ($50M); dividend maintained Shareholder return steady

Management Commentary

  • CEO (prepared): “We delivered record full year financial results while maintaining our standard of operational excellence…positioned as the industry leader in FSRUs and downstream LNG infrastructure” .
  • CEO (strategy): Hull 3407 “best-in-class…capable of delivering 1 billion cubic feet per day,” with keel laying and launch milestones in H1 2025, delivery in 2026 .
  • CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $92 million…essentially flat to the third quarter,” and net debt ~$158M with $538M cash on hand, underscoring balance sheet strength .
  • CFO (2025 guide): EBITDA $340–$360M, maintenance capex $60–$70M; two dry docks (Exemplar Q3, Explorer Q4 2025) with 40–50 days off-hire each included in guidance .

Q&A Highlights

  • 2025 guidance composition: base FSRU/terminal business drives EBITDA; other growth opportunities not embedded; LNG optimization assumed, but over 90% from core .
  • LNG carrier acquisition: inspected multiple vessels; plan to use for optimization in near term and later convert to FSRU; conversion aimed at smaller send-out projects .
  • Capex accounting: 2025 maintenance capex fully capitalized; prior Bangladesh dry docks were expensed .
  • Newbuild payments: final payment ~$200M in mid-2026; milestone payments $33M (Q1 2025 keel laying) and $17M (Q2 2025 launch) .
  • Macro tailwinds: European policy and storage dynamics support tight FSRU demand; “cheap insurance” case reinforced by Gasgrid Finland example .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 was unavailable due to SPGI request limit errors during retrieval; as a result, comparisons vs consensus estimates are not shown [GetEstimates error].
  • We will revisit estimates when access is restored to assess beat/miss risk vs EPS and revenue consensus from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Sequentially stronger quarter: revenue up sharply to $274.6M with EPS $0.40; adjusted EBITDA steady amid planned maintenance—supportive of durability in the base business .
  • 2025 setup: EBITDA guide $340–$360M with embedded off-hire from two dry docks; >90% of earnings from core FSRU/terminal business reduces commodity risk profile .
  • Capital discipline: dividend maintained at $0.06; buyback fully utilized ($50M) with ~2.5M shares repurchased in 2024—signals confidence and shareholder returns .
  • Strategic optionality: LNG carrier purchase and conversion path creates near-to-midterm deployment flexibility; Hull 3407 is a high-capacity catalyst for 2026 .
  • Liquidity for growth: cash $537.5M and $327.2M revolver capacity, with net debt ~$158M—ample balance sheet to fund organic/inorganic opportunities .
  • Macro narrative supportive: structural FSRU “insurance” value and European dynamics likely sustain tight regas capacity markets; EE remains well positioned .
  • Watch items: maintenance-driven off-hire execution, timing on LNG carrier acquisition, and progress in Vietnam/Alaska project contracting—potential upside catalysts .